Operation Epic Fury has trapped 9 million South Asian workers in a war zone—and no one has a plan to get them out
Executive Summary
- Iran's retaliatory strikes across six Gulf states have closed airspace over the world's busiest international aviation hub, stranding hundreds of thousands of travelers and trapping an estimated 9 million South Asian migrant workers in an active war zone.
- India, which has 8.9 million citizens in the Gulf, faces the prospect of an evacuation operation 50 times larger than its legendary 1990 Kuwait airlift—with no airspace to fly through.
- The crisis exposes a structural vulnerability in the global labor model: the Gulf economies' dependence on 30+ million foreign workers who have no citizenship, limited legal protections, and now no exit route.
Chapter 1: The Airspace Cage
When Iranian missiles struck Dubai's Palm Jumeirah, Abu Dhabi International Airport, and Bahrain's national security headquarters on February 28, the immediate military damage was contained. The deeper wound was infrastructural: within hours, eight countries—Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE—closed their airspace to civilian traffic.
This is not a minor disruption. Dubai International Airport is the world's busiest hub for international passengers, handling over 90 million travelers annually. Together with Abu Dhabi and Doha, these three airports process roughly 90,000 passengers daily across Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways alone. On the first day of closures, over 1,000 flights were cancelled. By Sunday, the global ripple had delayed more than 18,000 flights worldwide and cancelled over 2,350, according to FlightAware.
The aviation analytics firm Cirium reported that 22.9% of all flights scheduled to land in Middle Eastern countries on Saturday were cancelled. Airlines rerouting over Saudi Arabia face additional hours of flight time, higher fuel costs, and increased pressure on Saudi air traffic controllers.
For context, when Israel and the US attacked Iran in June 2025 during the 12-day war, airspace disruptions lasted the full duration. Military analysts now expect the current conflict—Operation Epic Fury—to be significantly longer, potentially weeks. Mike McCormick, former FAA air traffic control chief, suggested partial reopenings might occur within 24-36 hours as military operations become "better defined." But with Iran's IRGC declaring a Strait of Hormuz blockade and Kataib Hezbollah and the Houthis joining the fray, "better defined" may be optimistic.
Chapter 2: The Diaspora Trap
The Gulf Cooperation Council states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—host approximately 30 million foreign workers, comprising 70-90% of the private-sector workforce in most Gulf states. The largest contingent is South Asian:
| Country | Indian Nationals | Total Expat Population | Expats as % of Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 3.5 million | 8.9 million | 88% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.6 million | 13.4 million | 38% |
| Kuwait | 1.0 million | 3.4 million | 70% |
| Qatar | 0.8 million | 2.4 million | 85% |
| Oman | 0.6 million | 1.8 million | 44% |
| Bahrain | 0.35 million | 0.8 million | 52% |
| Total | ~8.9 million | ~30.7 million | — |
These workers—construction laborers, domestic staff, IT professionals, healthcare workers, retail employees—are now trapped in countries under missile attack. The Indian diaspora alone is larger than the population of Switzerland. Add Pakistani (4 million), Bangladeshi (3 million), Filipino (2.5 million), Nepali (1.5 million), and Sri Lankan (0.5 million) communities, and over 20 million South and Southeast Asian workers are in the crossfire.
The critical difference from past crises: in 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, India evacuated 170,000 citizens—a Guinness World Record for the largest civil airlift. That operation took 59 days and 488 flights. Today, the potential evacuee population is 50 times larger, spread across six countries rather than one, and there is no airspace to fly through.
Chapter 3: The Kafala System's Wartime Cruelty
The Gulf's labor migration model was never designed for crisis. The kafala (sponsorship) system, which ties workers' legal residency to their employer, creates structural immobility even in peacetime. Workers cannot change jobs, leave the country, or sometimes even access their own passports without employer consent.
In wartime, these restrictions become life-threatening:
Passport confiscation: Despite legal reforms in some Gulf states, the practice of employers holding workers' passports remains widespread. A 2023 ILO study found that 30-40% of migrant workers in the Gulf did not have access to their own travel documents. Without passports, evacuation is impossible even if flights resume.
Shelter inequality: When Iranian missiles struck Bahrain, an Indian national named Asif told India Today: "I request the government to evacuate us as most of the Indian diaspora are not aware of where the shelters are." Gulf states have civil defense shelters, but they were designed for citizen populations. There is no systematic plan for housing millions of foreign workers during sustained bombardment.
Communication gaps: Many low-wage workers lack smartphones or reliable internet. India's MEA issued advisories asking citizens to "remain vigilant and follow local security guidance," but these digital communications may not reach the most vulnerable.
Economic coercion: Workers who flee risk losing unpaid wages, end-of-service benefits, and any prospect of returning to their livelihoods. For families in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh that depend entirely on Gulf remittances—worth $100+ billion annually to South Asia—the calculus is agonizing.
Chapter 4: India's Impossible Calculus
India's response to the crisis has been conspicuously cautious. The Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement on February 28 expressing "deep concern" and urging "all sides to exercise restraint." Notably, New Delhi has not announced any evacuation.
This restraint reflects multiple pressures:
The Modi-Israel axis: Prime Minister Modi returned from a state visit to Israel just days before Operation Epic Fury, signing $8.6 billion in defense deals and addressing the Knesset. Launching a massive evacuation would implicitly criticize the US-Israeli operation that created the crisis—an awkward position for a government that has strategically aligned with both Washington and Jerusalem.
Logistical impossibility: Even if India activated its full evacuation apparatus, there is nowhere to fly. Gulf airspace is closed. Maritime evacuation via the Arabian Sea is theoretically possible but would require naval vessels to transit near the Strait of Hormuz—now declared a war zone by the IRGC. India's naval assets are stretched thin, with its primary carrier INS Vikrant deployed for the MILAN 2026 exercise.
Scale without precedent: The 1990 Kuwait airlift is celebrated as India's finest hour in diaspora protection. But evacuating 170,000 from a single country is categorically different from potentially evacuating millions from six countries simultaneously. India's civil aviation fleet, even commandeered entirely, could move perhaps 500,000 people per week under ideal conditions. With closed airspace, the number is zero.
The remittance weapon: Gulf remittances to India totaled $32 billion in 2025, making India the world's largest remittance recipient. A chaotic evacuation could permanently disrupt these flows, devastating rural economies in Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh—states that send the most workers to the Gulf.
Chapter 5: Historical Precedents and Scenario Analysis
1990 Kuwait Airlift (Baseline Comparison)
| Factor | 1990 Kuwait | 2026 Gulf Crisis |
|---|---|---|
| Evacuees | 170,000 | Potential 8.9M (India alone) |
| Countries | 1 | 6 |
| Duration | 59 days | Unknown (ongoing) |
| Airspace | Open (via Jordan/Saudi) | Closed across region |
| Military threat | Ground invasion | Missile/drone strikes |
| Employer cooperation | Mixed | Unknown |
| Naval route available | No | Contested (Hormuz) |
Scenario A: Rapid De-escalation (25%)
Premise: US-Israeli operations achieve decisive objectives within 72 hours. Gulf airspace partially reopens within a week. Most expats shelter in place; small-scale commercial evacuations resume.
Basis for probability: The June 2025 Twelve-Day War offers a precedent, but that conflict was bilateral (Israel-Iran). Epic Fury involves six Gulf states under direct attack, with Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias entering the fight. The IRGC's Hormuz blockade declaration suggests Iran is escalating, not capitulating. Khamenei's death (if confirmed) could create a succession crisis that prolongs instability. Only 25% because rapid de-escalation requires multiple actors to simultaneously stand down.
Trigger: Confirmed ceasefire acceptance by IRGC leadership; reopening of at least UAE and Qatar airspace.
Scenario B: Protracted Conflict, Managed Crisis (45%)
Premise: Fighting continues for 2-4 weeks. Gulf states establish humanitarian corridors for civilian evacuation. India, Pakistan, Philippines, and other source countries negotiate bilateral evacuation agreements. Partial airspace reopenings allow staggered evacuations, prioritizing women, children, and injured.
Basis for probability: Historical pattern of Middle East conflicts stabilizing into managed escalation (2006 Lebanon War, 2014 Gaza). Gulf states have strong incentives to maintain economic functionality. However, 30 million foreign workers cannot sustain themselves indefinitely without working infrastructure, banking systems, and supply chains. The 45% reflects the most likely muddling-through scenario, supported by Gulf states' financial resources and desire to protect economic assets.
Trigger: GCC joint statement on humanitarian corridors; Indian Navy deployment to Arabian Sea.
Scenario C: Humanitarian Catastrophe (30%)
Premise: Conflict escalates with Hormuz fully blocked, Gulf infrastructure severely damaged, and mass displacement. Hundreds of thousands of workers attempt overland evacuation to Oman or Saudi Arabia's interior. Tent cities emerge. International humanitarian agencies overwhelmed.
Basis for probability: This scenario becomes more likely each day the conflict continues. The Hormuz blockade, if sustained, will disrupt food and water supplies to Gulf states that import 80-90% of their food. Construction workers in labor camps—often in remote desert locations—are particularly vulnerable. The 30% reflects the compounding risks of simultaneous military operations, infrastructure damage, and supply chain disruption.
Trigger: Sustained Hormuz blockade beyond 7 days; confirmed strikes on desalination plants or power infrastructure.
Chapter 6: Investment Implications
Aviation: Emirates (government-owned), Qatar Airways, and Etihad face billions in losses. Listed airline stocks globally are under pressure; rerouting costs alone could add $500M+ weekly across the industry. Boeing and Airbus face delayed deliveries as Gulf carriers defer orders.
Remittances: Western Union, Wise, and digital remittance platforms face transaction volume collapse across Gulf corridors. The $100B+ annual South Asia-Gulf remittance flow is at existential risk.
Gulf real estate: Dubai's property market, which recovered aggressively post-2024, faces a confidence shock. Expat flight—even after conflict resolution—could trigger oversupply. Emaar, DAMAC, and Aldar are exposed.
Energy: Brent crude's $20-40 war premium is the headline, but the labor dimension matters too. Gulf oil facilities require migrant workers for maintenance and operations. A sustained diaspora crisis threatens production capacity beyond the Hormuz disruption.
Insurance: War risk premiums across Gulf shipping, aviation, and property are repricing in real-time. Lloyd's of London faces its largest potential loss event since the pandemic.
Defense stocks: BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall continue to benefit from the broader rearmament cycle. Missile defense systems (Raytheon's Patriot, Rafael's Iron Dome) see renewed demand.
Conclusion
The Gulf diaspora crisis is the invisible dimension of Operation Epic Fury. While military analysts debate missile trajectories and nuclear facilities, 30 million people—overwhelmingly poor, overwhelmingly South Asian, overwhelmingly without citizenship or legal protections—are trapped between warring states.
India's 1990 Kuwait airlift moved 170,000 people and entered national mythology. The scale of the current crisis dwarfs that precedent by orders of magnitude. Whether it becomes India's—and South Asia's—greatest humanitarian challenge of the 21st century depends on decisions being made right now in Washington, Tehran, and Riyadh.
The workers cannot wait.
Sources: The Guardian, India Today, The Week India, FlightAware, Cirium, ILO, MEA India, IATA
Leave a Reply