Eco Stream

Israel's ambitious bid to forge a six-sided alliance against dual 'radical axes' reveals more about its diplomatic isolation than its strategic vision

Executive Summary

• Israeli PM Netanyahu has proposed a "Hexagon of Alliances" — a multi-nation bloc linking Israel, India, Greece, Cyprus, and unnamed Arab/African/Asian states to counter both Iran's "Shia axis" and an "emerging Sunni axis" led by Turkey
• The announcement, timed to coincide with Modi's historic Feb 25-26 Israel visit (the first by a Global South leader since Oct 2023), is as much about breaking Israel's diplomatic isolation as building a genuine security architecture
• No named partner has publicly endorsed the framework, two of three named states (Greece, Cyprus) would be legally obligated to arrest Netanyahu under ICC warrants, and India's strategic autonomy doctrine makes rigid bloc membership unlikely

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Chapter 1: The Architecture of the Hexagon

On February 23, 2026, Netanyahu unveiled his vision during a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem. "In the vision I see before me, we will create an entire system, essentially a 'hexagon' of alliances around or within the Middle East," he declared. The framework would complement — not replace — the US-Israel strategic relationship, creating what Netanyahu described as overlapping networks of cooperation.

The named vertices of the hexagon are revealing in both what they include and what they omit:

Named partners:

• Israel — the hub
• India — the strategic anchor (1.4 billion people, $3.7 trillion economy)
• Greece — Eastern Mediterranean NATO ally with deep defense ties to Israel
• Cyprus — strategic energy and maritime partner

Unnamed partners:

• "Select Arab states" — likely the Abraham Accords signatories (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco)
• "African nations" — potentially those with new or upgraded Israel ties
• "Other Asian partners" — possibly Singapore, South Korea, or Vietnam

The conspicuous absence of Saudi Arabia from the named list speaks volumes. Riyadh-Jerusalem normalization, once the crown jewel of Trump-era diplomacy, has stalled indefinitely amid the Gaza war. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has publicly conditioned normalization on Palestinian statehood — a non-starter for Netanyahu's far-right coalition.

Chapter 2: The Dual-Axis Doctrine

Netanyahu's hexagon rests on a novel — and controversial — strategic framing: the Middle East is threatened not by one but two "radical axes."

The Shia Axis (Iran-led):
This is familiar terrain. Iran's "Axis of Resistance" — Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, Houthis, and Palestinian armed groups — has been Israel's primary security preoccupation for decades. Netanyahu claims substantial victories:

• Hezbollah's leadership decimated in 2024-2025 operations
• Iran's nuclear facilities struck in the 12-day war
• Houthi capabilities degraded through US-Israeli naval operations

The "Emerging Sunni Axis" (Turkey-led):
This is the more provocative claim. While Netanyahu avoided naming Turkey directly, the subtext is unmistakable. Former PM Naftali Bennett recently described Turkey as "the new Iran," and Israeli political discourse has increasingly framed Erdoğan's Turkey as a strategic threat comparable to Tehran.

The evidence Netanyahu's camp marshals:

• Erdoğan's fierce public denunciations of Israeli operations in Gaza
• Turkey's growing defense industry exports to the Gulf and Africa (the KAAN 5th-gen fighter program, Bayraktar drone sales)
• Ankara's February state visits to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, interpreted as coalition-building against Israel
• Turkey's military base (TURKSOM) in Somalia and expanding Blue Homeland naval doctrine

However, as Omer Ozkizilcik of the Atlantic Council notes, the regional coordination against Israel "is not a collective alliance based on an ideology or based on Sunnism. This is a geopolitical, realistic behaviour, and these states happen to be Sunni majority." Netanyahu's sectarian framing risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy — by labeling diverse diplomatic responses as a unified "radical Sunni axis," Israel may actually accelerate the very alignment it claims to fear.

Chapter 3: The India Paradox

Modi's February 25-26 visit to Israel — the first by a major Global South leader since October 2023 — is the immediate catalyst for the hexagon announcement. The visit is extraordinary in its symbolism and substance:

What's on the table:

• Up to $10 billion in defense deals (SPICE bombs, Air LORA missiles, Rampage munitions, Iron Dome components)
• Joint cybersecurity center of excellence
• Free Trade Agreement roadmap (completion target: end of 2026)
• AI and quantum computing cooperation
• Modi will address the Knesset — a rare honor reserved for the closest allies

What makes India an awkward hexagon partner:

India's foreign policy DNA resists exactly the kind of rigid bloc politics Netanyahu envisions. As a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement, New Delhi simultaneously maintains:

• "Civilizational" ties with Iran (India's own MEA description)
• $45 billion+ annual trade with Gulf Arab states
• Deep energy dependence on Gulf oil and gas
• 8-9 million Indian workers in the Gulf sending billions in remittances
• Indonesia deployment of 8,000 troops to Gaza's International Security Force
• Its own commitment to the Palestinian two-state solution

Modi has performed a characteristic balancing act: he signed on to a 100+ country statement condemning Israeli West Bank settlement expansion as illegal, even while heading to Jerusalem. India wants Israeli technology, defense systems, and intelligence cooperation — but not at the cost of its strategic autonomy or its Global South credentials.

As Andreas Krieg of King's College London told Al Jazeera: Netanyahu's "axis vs axis" framing "risks hardening regional polarisation" and "pulling India further into Middle East fault lines it generally prefers to manage pragmatically, not ideologically."

Chapter 4: The ICC Problem and the Legitimacy Gap

A fundamental contradiction undermines the hexagon: two of the three named state partners would be legally obligated to arrest Netanyahu if he visited.

Greece and Cyprus are both ICC member states. The Court's arrest warrant against Netanyahu for war crimes in Gaza creates an extraordinary scenario: the Israeli PM is proposing a formal alliance with countries that cannot host him. This isn't merely symbolic — it reveals the depth of Israel's diplomatic challenge.

The hexagon also faces a legitimacy deficit in the broader region:

Actor	Position on Israel	Likelihood of Joining
UAE	Abraham Accords signatory, but cooling	Moderate (transactional)
Bahrain	Accords signatory, but domestic pressure	Low-moderate
Saudi Arabia	Normalization conditional on Palestinian state	Very low
Egypt	Relations strained over Rafah, West Bank	Very low
Jordan	King Abdullah deeply critical	Very low
Turkey	Diplomatic rupture	Hostile
South Africa	ICJ genocide case against Israel	Hostile

Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem condemned the hexagon as "a hegemonic project designed to entrench Israeli dominance while marginalising Palestinian rights." While Hamas's response is predictable, it reflects a broader Global South consensus that Israel's post-Gaza diplomacy lacks the precondition most partners demand: meaningful engagement with Palestinian statehood.

Chapter 5: Scenario Analysis

Scenario A: The Hexagon as "Branding Exercise" (55%)

Rationale: This is the most likely outcome. The hexagon never materializes as a formal alliance but serves its actual purpose: a diplomatic narrative that breaks Israel's isolation story and deepens bilateral ties with India specifically.

Historical precedent: Israel's "periphery doctrine" of the 1950s-60s — alliances with non-Arab states (Turkey, Iran, Ethiopia) that were pragmatically useful but never constituted a formal bloc. The Baghdad Pact (1955) similarly promised more than it delivered in terms of genuine collective security.

Trigger conditions: India and Israel deepen defense and tech ties bilaterally without any multilateral architecture. Greece and Cyprus continue defense cooperation without formal hexagon membership. Unnamed Arab states keep relations discreet.

Investment implications: Israeli defense stocks (Elbit Systems, Rafael) benefit from bilateral deals. India defense budget increase (already 13% YoY) sustains demand. No structural geopolitical shift.

Scenario B: Partial Crystallization (30%)

Rationale: A subset of the hexagon — likely Israel-India-UAE-Greece — forms a loose security coordination mechanism, falling well short of a treaty but creating regular consultation channels.

Trigger conditions: Iran nuclear talks collapse, creating urgency for anti-Iran coordination. Turkey-Egypt-Saudi coordination deepens, prompting reactive alignment. US disengagement from the region accelerates under America First 2.0.

Historical precedent: The I2U2 group (India-Israel-UAE-US) formed in 2022 as an informal economic forum. A security-oriented version could emerge organically.

Investment implications: Eastern Mediterranean energy cooperation accelerates (Greek/Cypriot gas, Israel's Leviathan). Defense interoperability spending rises. Regional security premium persists but contained.

Scenario C: Escalation Catalyst (15%)

Rationale: The hexagon framing, by explicitly labeling Turkey as part of a "radical Sunni axis," triggers a diplomatic crisis. Ankara retaliates with economic or military posturing, regional polarization deepens.

Trigger conditions: Netanyahu doubles down on the anti-Turkey rhetoric. Erdoğan responds with concrete measures (trade restrictions, military deployments). A Turkey-Iran tactical alignment of convenience emerges.

Historical precedent: The 2010 Mavi Marmara incident caused a decade-long Turkey-Israel rupture. Erdoğan's domestic political incentives reward confrontation with Israel.

Investment implications: Turkish lira volatility spikes. Eastern Mediterranean energy projects face geopolitical risk premium. Defense stocks surge across the region. Safe-haven flows to gold accelerate.

Chapter 6: Investment Implications

Defense sector: The $8.6-10 billion India-Israel defense pipeline is real regardless of the hexagon's fate. Key beneficiaries: Elbit Systems (ESLT), Israel Aerospace Industries, Bharat Electronics (BEL.NS), Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL.NS).

Eastern Mediterranean energy: The hexagon's implicit geographic framework overlaps with the EastMed energy corridor. Greek and Cypriot offshore gas development could accelerate if security cooperation deepens. Watch: Energean (ENOG.L), Delek Drilling.

Turkey risk: The "radical Sunni axis" labeling adds a new layer of geopolitical risk to Turkish assets. Turkish equities (XU100) and lira already under pressure from domestic political factors; hexagon rhetoric could amplify outflows if Erdoğan retaliates.

Gold and safe havens: Middle Eastern polarization, combined with Iran nuclear brinksmanship and the hexagon's confrontational framing, supports continued strength in gold above $5,000 and demand for non-dollar reserve assets.

Conclusion

The Hexagon of Alliances reveals more about Israel's strategic anxieties than its diplomatic capabilities. Netanyahu is attempting to transform a set of useful bilateral relationships — particularly with India — into a grand narrative of collective security against dual threats. But the gap between vision and reality is vast: no partner has endorsed the framework, the ICC problem makes formal alliance impractical with two of three named states, and India's strategic autonomy makes rigid bloc membership antithetical to its foreign policy DNA.

The hexagon's real significance lies not in what it will become but in what it tells us about three structural shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics:

First, Israel's post-Gaza diplomatic isolation is deeper than its government publicly acknowledges. When the only way to project alliance is to name partners who haven't agreed, the narrative is aspirational, not descriptive.

Second, the framing of Turkey as a "radical" threat alongside Iran represents a genuine evolution in Israeli strategic thinking — one that could reshape Eastern Mediterranean security dynamics for years to come.

Third, India's willingness to visit Jerusalem while the Global South consensus runs firmly against Israeli actions demonstrates that the old Non-Aligned Movement categories are dissolving. India now pursues what some analysts call "multi-alignment" — strategic relationships with every major power center regardless of ideological coherence.

The hexagon may never exist as Netanyahu envisions it. But the forces that prompted its announcement — Israeli isolation, Turkish assertiveness, Indian pragmatism, and the collapse of the post-Cold War Middle Eastern order — are very real indeed.

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Sources: Al Jazeera, The Week India, Outlook India, Haaretz, News18, YNet News, Indian Express, UK Gov statements