Rob Jetten's minority cabinet marks the first time a far-right government has been replaced by a centrist one in modern European history — but governing with 66 of 150 seats may prove even harder than winning.
Executive Summary
- The Netherlands is inaugurating a D66-VVD-CDA minority cabinet on February 23, 2026, replacing the collapsed PVV-led Schoof government — the first reversal of far-right governance in contemporary Europe.
- At 38, Rob Jetten becomes the youngest Dutch Prime Minister in history, leading a government that holds just 66 of 150 seats in the lower house and must negotiate every piece of legislation with opposition parties.
- The PVV's implosion — losing 11 seats, suffering a 7-MP defection, and being excluded from coalition talks — offers a potential template for how populist movements can self-destruct through the contradictions of governing, with significant implications for the AfD in Germany, the RN in France, and populist movements across Europe.
Chapter 1: The Collapse — How Wilders Lost Everything
Eighteen months ago, Geert Wilders seemed unstoppable. His Party for Freedom (PVV) had stunned Europe by winning 37 seats in the November 2023 election — the largest result in its history — and he had managed something previously unthinkable: forming a government. The Schoof cabinet, a four-party coalition of PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB under technocratic Prime Minister Dick Schoof, took office in July 2024 with a clear right-wing mandate on immigration, asylum, and cultural identity.
It lasted less than a year.
On June 3, 2025, Wilders pulled PVV's ministers from the coalition, citing "irreconcilable disagreements" over asylum policy. The irony was devastating: the party that had made immigration restriction its entire raison d'être could not deliver on immigration restriction even when it held power. The coalition had been paralyzed by legal constraints — EU asylum directives, Dutch constitutional protections, and court rulings that blocked the most aggressive proposals. Schoof later reflected that the coalition agreement showed "little affection" and that party leaders "were sparing in what they gave each other."
The collapse deepened when NSC also exited in August 2025, ostensibly over blocked Israel sanctions but more fundamentally over the government's dysfunction. The rump cabinet limped on as a caretaker until the October 2025 snap election.
The Election: A Fragmented Verdict
The October 29, 2025 election produced the most fragmented result in Dutch history. D66 and PVV tied at 26 seats each — with D66 winning more total votes — marking the lowest-ever seat count for the largest party. The PVV had hemorrhaged 11 seats from its 2023 peak. The other former coalition parties fared even worse: NSC collapsed, BBB shrank to just 4 seats, and VVD dropped to 22.
The result reflected a paradox: voters punished the populist coalition for failing to govern, but didn't swing decisively to any alternative. The Netherlands' proportional representation system, with its 0.67% effective threshold, produced a parliament with over a dozen parties and no obvious majority.
Then came the final blow. In January 2026, seven PVV MPs defected to form a breakaway group under Gidi Markuszower, citing frustration with Wilders's autocratic leadership style. The PVV — a party with no formal members, no internal democracy, and a single-member foundation structure where Wilders is literally the only member — was fragmenting in the one way that mattered: its parliamentary caucus.
| Metric | PVV Nov 2023 | PVV Oct 2025 | PVV Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | 37 | 26 | 19 (after split) |
| Coalition role | Senior partner | Opposition | Fragmented opposition |
| Poll standing | 30%+ | ~17% | ~13% |
| Internal cohesion | Strong | Strained | Split |
Chapter 2: The Jetten Experiment — Governing Without a Majority
What emerged from this wreckage was unprecedented in modern Dutch politics: a centrist minority cabinet. D66, VVD, and CDA formed a coalition with just 66 of 150 seats in the Tweede Kamer (House of Representatives) and only 22 of 75 in the Senate. The last comparable minority government in the Netherlands was the Colijn V cabinet in 1939, which fell after two days.
Rob Jetten, 38, becomes the youngest Prime Minister in Dutch history, breaking a record held by Ruud Lubbers since 1982. A former climate and energy minister under Rutte IV, Jetten campaigned on pragmatism — a "can-do" platform that deliberately avoided ideological fireworks. His coalition agreement, titled "Getting to Work — Building a Better Netherlands," reflects this technocratic sensibility.
Key Policy Priorities
Defence and Security: The cabinet's most ambitious commitment is a €19 billion military expansion, funded by a new "Vrijheidsbijdrage" (Freedom Contribution) tax surcharge, targeting 3.5% of GDP for defence by the early 2030s. This aligns the Netherlands with the broader European rearmament trend following MSC 2026 and the EU SAFE program.
Housing: The Netherlands' chronic housing shortage — approximately 390,000 homes — is addressed through nitrogen emissions reforms to unlock stalled construction projects, annual income checks for social housing eligibility, and regulatory simplification.
Fiscal Discipline: The cabinet targets a budget deficit below 2% of GDP, a constraint that will limit its ambitions and force trade-offs.
Healthcare: The unpopular increase of the healthcare deductible from €385 to €460 signals the coalition's willingness to accept political pain for fiscal consolidation.
The Parliamentary Arithmetic Problem
Jetten has described his government as a "cabinet of collaboration" and acknowledged that "success will not come from a majority, but from the quality of our compromises." Every piece of legislation will require negotiation with opposition parties.
The most likely support partners:
- GroenLinks-PvdA (20 seats): The left-green alliance could provide a centrist majority of 86 seats but would demand concessions on climate and social spending that VVD would resist.
- JA21 (9 seats): The conservative-liberal party could support centre-right initiatives but has strained relations with D66.
- BBB (4 seats): The farmers' party could provide issue-by-issue support but has limited leverage.
- SGP/CU (6 seats combined): Christian parties could support specific legislation but have ideological tensions with D66 on social issues.
This arithmetic means the cabinet will need to build different majorities for different issues — a left-leaning coalition for housing and climate, a right-leaning one for defence and fiscal policy. Dutch political scientists have called this "variable geometry governance."
Chapter 3: The Populist Self-Destruction Template
The Dutch experience offers the most complete case study yet of how far-right populist movements can implode through the contradictions of governance. The pattern is instructive:
Phase 1: Maximalist Promises, Minimalist Delivery. The PVV built its entire political identity on immigration restriction. In power, it discovered that EU law, constitutional rights, and judicial review made its most dramatic proposals undeliverable. The gap between rhetoric and reality destroyed credibility with core supporters.
Phase 2: Coalition Friction. Governing requires compromise. Populist parties, which thrive on moral absolutism and us-vs-them framing, are structurally unsuited to coalition dynamics. Wilders pulled out rather than accept the incremental reality of policy-making.
Phase 3: Leadership Fragility. The PVV's unique structure — no formal membership, no internal democracy, Wilders as the sole member of the party's legal foundation — meant there was no institutional resilience. When seven MPs decided to leave, there was no mechanism to resolve internal disputes. The party splintered because it was never really a party at all.
European Comparisons
| Country | Populist Party | Status | Key Dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | PVV | Collapsed in govt, split | Governance contradictions |
| Italy | Fratelli d'Italia | In power, moderating | Meloni pragmatism |
| France | RN | Opposition, rising | Le Pen legal troubles |
| Germany | AfD | 25%+ polls, excluded | Cordon sanitaire holding |
| Hungary | Fidesz | In power, entrenched | Institutional capture |
| Portugal | Chega | 33% in election, blocked | Cordon sanitaire held |
The Netherlands stands alone as the only European country where a far-right party has both entered and exited government. Italy's Meloni has survived by dramatically moderating (the "Meloni paradox"). Hungary's Orbán entrenched himself through institutional capture. France's Le Pen has never reached power. Germany's AfD remains excluded.
Historical precedent: The closest parallel is Austria's FPÖ under Jörg Haider, which entered government in 2000, split in 2005 (Haider founded the BZÖ), and spent years in the wilderness before eventually reforming. The cycle from triumph to implosion took roughly five years — almost exactly the PVV's trajectory from 2023 to 2026.
Chapter 4: Scenario Analysis
Scenario A: Stable Variable Geometry (35%)
The Jetten cabinet successfully builds rotating majorities for different policy areas, passing defence spending increases with right-leaning support and housing/climate legislation with left-leaning support. The cabinet lasts the full term (2029/2030).
Basis for probability:
- Dutch political culture has deep traditions of consensus-building ("polder model")
- The main opposition parties have limited incentive to force new elections — PVV and GL-PvdA are roughly equal, creating a stalemate that benefits the incumbents
- Jetten's personal style emphasizes negotiation and pragmatism
- Historical precedent: Rutte I (2010-2012) survived as a minority government with PVV support for two years
Trigger conditions: Successful early legislative victories on defence spending; GL-PvdA accepting a constructive opposition role; no major economic shock.
Scenario B: Early Collapse (40%)
Internal tensions — particularly between D66's progressive instincts and VVD's conservative reflexes — combined with the sheer difficulty of assembling majorities for every vote, lead to cabinet failure within 12-18 months. A new election would likely produce an even more fragmented result.
Basis for probability:
- The Colijn V precedent (1939): the last Dutch minority cabinet fell in two days
- Only 66/150 seats is an extraordinarily weak base — even below typical minority government thresholds in Scandinavian countries (which usually have 70-80 seats of 150-179)
- The healthcare deductible increase and welfare reforms will face fierce opposition
- Senate arithmetic (22/75) is even worse, making legislation practically impossible without opposition cooperation
Trigger conditions: A key vote failure on budget or defence spending; VVD-D66 clash over climate policy; economic downturn that exposes fiscal contradictions.
Scenario C: Populist Resurgence (25%)
The PVV (or its successors) capitalize on governance frustrations, a migration crisis, or economic downturn to rebuild support. A new Wilders-led or post-Wilders populist formation returns as the dominant force, potentially combined with JA21 and the Markuszower breakaway group.
Basis for probability:
- The underlying drivers of populist support — housing crisis, cultural anxiety, income stagnation — are structural and won't be resolved by a minority cabinet
- European populist movements have shown resilience: Austria's FPÖ collapsed in 2005, returned to polls in 2017, won the 2024 election
- The PVV split could be temporary — Markuszower's group may rejoin or form a new coalition with Wilders
- A migration crisis (which is cyclical in European politics) would immediately reignite the dynamics that powered PVV's 2023 victory
Trigger conditions: A major migration wave; Jetten cabinet seen as too focused on defence spending at the expense of domestic concerns; PVV reunification under new leadership.
Chapter 5: Investment Implications and European Ripple Effects
Defence Sector
The €19 billion Vrijheidsbijdrage program makes the Netherlands one of the most aggressive European rearmers. Dutch defence companies — Thales Netherlands, Damen Shipyards, Dutch Aerospace — stand to benefit, as do broader European defence contractors already riding the SAFE program wave.
Housing and Construction
The nitrogen emissions reform, if successful, could unlock billions in construction activity. Dutch housing developers and building materials companies are positioned for potential upside, though regulatory risk remains high given the need for opposition support.
Dutch Government Bonds
The fiscal discipline pledge (deficit below 2%) in a minority government context creates interesting dynamics. Dutch 10-year yields currently trade at approximately 50bps spread to German Bunds. Political instability could widen this spread, while successful governance could tighten it.
European Populism Index
The Dutch reversal provides a counter-narrative to the "populism is inevitable" thesis. For investors in European assets, the key question is whether the Netherlands represents a leading indicator (populism peaks and self-destructs) or an outlier (the unique Dutch proportional representation system makes this non-replicable).
| Factor | Leading Indicator | Outlier |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral system | PR systems elsewhere (Scandinavia, Belgium) could replicate | FPTP systems (France, UK) have different dynamics |
| Governance failure | Universal: populists struggle with compromise everywhere | PVV's unique no-membership structure was especially fragile |
| Coalition culture | Polder model is distinctly Dutch | Germany has some similar traditions |
| Issue salience | Migration frustration is pan-European | Netherlands' extreme housing crisis is specific |
Conclusion
The Jetten cabinet represents European democracy's most interesting experiment: can a centrist minority government succeed in a polarized, fragmented political landscape? The answer matters far beyond The Hague. If variable geometry governance works in the Netherlands, it offers a template for the many European countries — Belgium, Italy, Spain, Germany — that face similar parliamentary fragmentation. If it fails, it risks validating the populist critique that only strong, majoritarian movements can actually govern.
Wilders's implosion also challenges a dangerous assumption that has shaped European politics for a decade: that the far-right tide only moves in one direction. The Dutch case shows that populist movements carry within them the seeds of their own destruction — the maximalist promises, the authoritarian leadership structures, the structural inability to compromise. The question is whether Europe's centrists can build something durable in the space that populism's collapse creates, or whether they will prove equally fragile.
As Jetten himself put it: "We are a small large party in a divided house." The next twelve months will determine whether that's a death sentence or a survival strategy.
Sources: NL Times, Diplomat Magazine, Wikipedia (Dutch cabinet formation), Reuters, S&P Global/HCOB Flash PMI data
Leave a Reply