Prologue: When the Emperor's Blade Turns on Friends
On January 24, 2026, Chinese politics was turned upside down. Zhang Youxia, the People's Liberation Army's most senior general and Xi Jinping's closest ally, was abruptly removed from his position as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). Including Liu Zhenli, the Joint Staff Department Chief who was purged alongside him, six out of seven CMC members have been removed since 2023. Only Xi Jinping himself and discipline inspection chief Zhang Shengmin remain.
This is not a mere personnel reshuffle. Foreign Affairs called it a "Shakespearean moment," and experts assess it as the largest military purge since the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). Why did Xi eliminate even his most loyal ally? What does this purge mean for Taiwan and the global order?
Chapter 1: Who Is Zhang Youxia — The Last Warrior of the "Princelings"
To understand Zhang Youxia (born 1950, age 75), you must start with his father. General Zhang Zongxun was a hero of China's Communist revolution and a comrade-in-arms who fought alongside Xi Jinping's father, Xi Zhongxun, during the civil war. Both families hailed from Shaanxi Province, forming a political alliance known as the "Shaanxi Gang."
The relationship between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping went beyond mere political alliance. According to China politics experts, both men shared "hereditary ties" dating back to their fathers' generation — core members of the so-called "Princelings" (Taizidang). Since Xi rose to power in 2012, Zhang consistently served as his key military supporter.
Zhang Youxia's Career Timeline
1968: Enlisted in the PLA at age 18
1979: Fought in the Sino-Vietnamese War — one of the few active generals with actual combat experience
2012: Director of the Equipment Development Department — overseeing weapons procurement
2017: CMC Vice Chairman + Politburo member — Xi's direct number two
2022: CMC Senior Vice Chairman — exempted from the mandatory retirement age of 68, becoming the highest-ranking military officer
January 2026: Purged — placed under investigation
Notably, Zhang Youxia fought in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. Liu Zhenli, who was purged alongside him, also had Vietnam War combat experience. These two were the last senior officers in the PLA with actual battlefield experience. Their removal represents not just a personnel issue but the loss of combat experience and institutional memory within the military.
Chapter 2: The Official Justification vs. Reality — "Corruption" or "Treason"?
The Official Announcement: Ambiguous Charges
On January 25, China's Ministry of National Defense announced investigations into Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for "suspected serious violations of discipline and law." The PLA Daily, the military's official newspaper, was more specific, accusing both men of "seriously trampling upon the CMC Chairman Responsibility System."
The CMC Chairman Responsibility System refers to the principle that Xi Jinping holds ultimate decision-making authority over the military. The phrase "trampling upon" this system implies that the two generals challenged Xi's authority.
Interestingly, the official announcement did not directly mention corruption itself. Previous purge announcements about generals like former Defense Minister Li Shangfu explicitly cited "accepting bribes." But for Zhang Youxia, "political problems" were mentioned first. This suggests the real reason for the purge may not be corruption.
Hidden Reasons: Expert Analysis
Hypothesis 1: Disagreement Over the 2027 Taiwan Invasion Timeline
According to Jamestown Foundation analysis, Zhang Youxia may have expressed disagreement with Xi's target of "completing preparations for Taiwan invasion by 2027." With actual combat experience, Zhang may have offered a more sober assessment of the PLA's actual combat readiness.
Russia's failure in Ukraine deeply shocked the Chinese military. A 2023 PLA Daily article criticized the Russian military as "too weak and limited in capability." An amphibious operation against Taiwan would be far more difficult than Russia's ground invasion of Ukraine. If Zhang spoke frankly to Xi about this reality, it may have caused his downfall.
Hypothesis 2: Completing the Faction Purge
Xi's purges have targeted specific factions. He Weidong and Miao Hua, purged in 2025, belonged to the "Fujian Clique" — a network formed during Xi's tenure in Fujian Province from 1985-2002. Zhang Youxia was at the core of the "Shaanxi Gang."
Paradoxically, Xi is now eliminating even his own historical support bases. As Foreign Affairs analyzed, "It is one thing for a leader to show no mercy to his enemies; it is quite another for him to be so pitiless with his friends."
Hypothesis 3: Cold Calculation of "Outlived Usefulness"
Zhang Youxia played a crucial role in helping Xi consolidate power. But with that mission complete, there may be no reason to keep a 75-year-old general around. Xi could have let Zhang retire naturally at the 2027 Party Congress. Instead, he chose to remove him now, 18 months early.
This parallels the 2022 Party Congress, where Xi publicly and forcibly escorted his predecessor Hu Jintao out of proceedings. For Xi, what matters is not merely having power, but demonstrating the exercise of power.
Chapter 3: The Dismantling of the CMC — From 7 to 2
CMC Evolution (2023-2026)
The Central Military Commission is the supreme decision-making body of China's military. Chaired by Xi Jinping, it traditionally consisted of two vice chairmen and four members.
Current Status of 2023 CMC Members:
- Xi Jinping (Chairman): Remains
- Zhang Youxia (Senior Vice Chairman): Purged (Jan 2026)
- He Weidong (Vice Chairman): Expelled (Oct 2025)
- Li Shangfu (Defense Minister): Expelled (Oct 2025)
- Miao Hua (Political Work Dept. Director): Expelled (Oct 2025)
- Liu Zhenli (Joint Staff Dept. Chief): Purged (Jan 2026)
- Zhang Shengmin (Discipline Inspection Secretary): Remains, promoted to Vice Chairman
Five of seven members have been purged, with only Zhang Shengmin surviving and being promoted. However, Zhang Shengmin comes from discipline inspection — he has zero military command experience. Currently, the CMC has no combat commanders.
AEI (American Enterprise Institute) analysis: "The CMC has transformed from a major military decision-making forum into an extension of Xi's will."
Largest Purge Since the Cultural Revolution
This level of high-level purge is unprecedented since the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution. During that era, Mao mobilized the military to eliminate rivals like Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping, and revolutionary heroes like Marshal He Long were persecuted to death.
Xi's purge is not as violent as Mao's era, but it rivals it in its systematic scope. According to New York Times interactive analysis, dozens of senior officers have disappeared in just three years, with the fates of many still unknown.
Chapter 4: Why Now — The Taiwan and Trump Variables
The "Calm" in the Taiwan Strait
Paradoxically, Xi is massively reshuffling the military now because the external environment is relatively stable.
The Trump administration's Taiwan policy is ambiguous. President Trump stated that "what China does regarding Taiwan is up to Xi." Last month's National Defense Strategy did not even mention Taiwan. America's defense commitment appears uncertain.
Taiwan's internal politics are also shifting in Beijing's favor. Support for President Lai Ching-te and the DPP has declined since the failed opposition recall vote in 2025. The KMT's new leadership advocates reconciliation with Beijing.
Xi is using this "calm" to restructure the military. To achieve his 2027 goal, he must now build a new command structure of absolute loyalty.
The Meaning of 2027
Xi reportedly ordered the PLA to complete preparations for Taiwan invasion by 2027. This timeline carries symbolic significance commemorating the CCP's founding centenary (1921) while coinciding with the start of Xi's fourth term (2027 Party Congress).
The purge of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli may disrupt this timeline. Both possessed combat experience and institutional knowledge. But for Xi, loyalty takes priority over capability. He appears to prefer obedient generals, even if incompetent, over capable but independent ones.
Chapter 5: Risk Analysis — The Danger of Miscalculation
The Isolated Emperor's Dilemma
The purge consolidates Xi's power while dangerously isolating him.
Distorted Information: If officers fear being purged, they will avoid delivering bad news to Xi. This increases the risk of military miscalculation.
Surrounded by Sycophants: Xi will fill the CMC with loyalists. But whether they possess military capability is questionable. The remaining CMC member Zhang Shengmin comes from discipline inspection with no combat command experience.
Loss of Experience: Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were the last active generals who experienced the Vietnam War. Their removal means the PLA has lost judgment based on combat experience.
Communication Breakdown with the West
According to Bloomberg, Liu Zhenli was the most effective channel for risk management communication with Western countries. He showed greater willingness than others to keep communication channels open.
Liu's purge increases the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation in any US-China military confrontation. Xi will personally control risk management, but he cannot monitor every situation in real-time.
Chapter 6: Scenario Analysis — What Comes Next
Scenario A: CMC Restructuring + Civilian Appointment (50%)
Rationale:
- In 2015, Xi restructured the CMC by removing service chiefs — precedent exists
- Currently Xi is the only civilian on CMC — traditionally a civilian is added when designating a successor
- Power consolidation pattern repeating
Triggers:
- New CMC composition announced before 2027 Party Congress
- Xi loyalist civilian official joins CMC
Timeframe: H2 2026 to H1 2027
Implications:
- Possible emergence of Xi's successor
- Further strengthening of Party control over military
Scenario B: Maintaining Reduced CMC (35%)
Rationale:
- Xi prefers one-man decisions over collective leadership
- Zhang Shengmin alone can handle discipline inspection functions
- Demote CMC from decision-making body to "Xi's will transmission apparatus"
Triggers:
- No CMC personnel announcements in 2026
- Major military decisions transmitted through channels other than CMC
Timeframe: Ongoing
Implications:
- Complete elimination of institutional checks
- Completion of Xi's personal dictatorship
Scenario C: Additional Purges + Zhang Shengmin Removal (15%)
Rationale:
- Zhang Shengmin was involved in purging other generals as discipline inspection chief
- He may know too much
- Xi shows pattern of eliminating collaborators who become "too powerful"
Triggers:
- Reduced public appearances by Zhang Shengmin
- New figures emerging in discipline inspection
Timeframe: 2026-2027
Implications:
- Complete CMC vacuum
- Accelerating military command chaos
Chapter 7: Historical Precedents — Shadows of Mao and Stalin
Mao Zedong's Military Purges (1966-1971)
During the Cultural Revolution, Mao purged revolutionary heroes like Peng Dehuai and He Long. He designated Lin Biao as successor, only for Lin to die in a plane crash in 1971 after alleged "coup plotting" (official account).
Mao's purges destroyed military professionalism and contributed to China's international isolation through the late 1970s.
Then vs. Now Comparison:
| Factor | Mao (1966-1976) | Xi (2023-2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Scale | Thousands persecuted, hundreds died | Dozens of senior officers purged |
| Method | Red Guard mobilization, public criticism | Quiet removal via Party discipline inspection |
| Justification | "Capitalist roaders," counter-revolution | Corruption, "CMC Chairman Responsibility System violation" |
| Goal | Eliminate rivals + ideological purity | Secure absolute loyalty + invasion preparation |
| Result | Military weakened, international isolation | Ongoing… |
Stalin's Great Purge (1936-1938)
Stalin's "Great Purge" of 1936-1938 eliminated 80% of Red Army command. All 3 marshals, 15 of 16 army commanders, and 60 of 67 corps commanders were executed.
The results were catastrophic. In the 1939 Finland invasion (Winter War), the Soviet military suffered massive casualties against tiny Finland. In the early 1941 German invasion, millions were killed or captured due to the absence of experienced commanders.
Lessons for Xi:
- Purges consolidate power short-term but can cause military disaster long-term
- Removing experienced commanders exacts a price in actual combat
Conclusion: The Paradox of Power
Xi's great military purge has made him one of the most powerful leaders in Chinese history. But it demonstrates the paradox of power. Absolute power accompanies absolute solitude.
Zhang Youxia's purge sends the message that no one is safe under Xi. Decades of friendship, hereditary ties from the fathers' generation — nothing could protect him. As the PLA Daily declared, Xi's campaign has "no forbidden zones."
But this ruthlessness comes at a cost. The last generals with combat experience are gone. The CMC has devolved from a decision-making body to a tool of one-man dictatorship. Officers will tell Xi what he wants to hear rather than the truth.
Should a crisis erupt in the Taiwan Strait, these structural weaknesses may be exposed. Xi wants to complete invasion preparations by 2027. But whether the military he's building can actually perform that mission is questionable.
Foreign Affairs' conclusion is apt: "The real question for Xi is whether he can author the denouement that so far seems to have eluded him: a military that lives up to his unforgiving standards of party loyalty and operational proficiency."
That ending is yet to be written. But how Xi writes it will determine the future of Asia — and the future of the global order.
📊 Key Numbers
- 7 → 2: CMC members (2023-2026)
- 75: Zhang Youxia's age (exempted from 68 retirement age)
- 1979: Last combat experience of Zhang and Liu (Vietnam War)
- 2027: Xi's target year for Taiwan invasion readiness
- 50 years: Since a military purge of this scale (Cultural Revolution)
Sources: Foreign Affairs, Asia Times, AEI, The Straits Times, Washington Times, New York Times, Reuters
Leave a Reply