Executive Summary
Tomorrow (February 6), the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics opens. Italy, which promised a "low-cost, eco-friendly Olympics" in 2019, now faces over €5 billion in cost overruns, corruption scandals reaching the Constitutional Court, and geopolitical tensions over Russian athlete participation.
Key Numbers:
- Budget: €1.7B (2019) → €5B+ (2026) — 3x increase
- Artificial snow: 1.6 million m³ (400-600 million liters of water)
- Russian neutral athletes: 13 participating, Ukraine strongly opposed
Key Insight: The new IOC President has signaled possible "Russia return for 2028 LA Olympics" — Milano-Cortina serves as a test bed.
Introduction: The Winter Olympics and Milano-Cortina
What Are the Winter Olympics?
The Winter Olympics is a quadrennial winter sports event organized by the International Olympic Committee (IOC). The first Games were held in Chamonix, France in 1924, featuring snow and ice sports including skiing, skating, bobsled, and luge. While smaller than the Summer Olympics (approximately 90 countries, 3,000 athletes), the Winter Games hold immense national pride for traditional winter sports powerhouses in Europe and North America.
How Did Milano-Cortina Win the Bid?
In June 2019, at the IOC session in Lausanne, Switzerland, Milano-Cortina defeated Stockholm-Åre (Sweden) 47-34 to secure hosting rights. Italy's winning formula had three pillars:
- "Utilizing existing facilities": Promised to reuse venues from 1956 Cortina and 2006 Turin Olympics
- Low-cost pledge: Claimed total budget of €1.7 billion would make it the cheapest Winter Olympics ever
- Sustainability promise: Declared minimal new construction and an environmentally-friendly Games
Seven years later, all these promises have collapsed.
A Tale of Two Cities: Milan and Cortina
Milan is the economic capital of northern Italy, a metropolis of 1.4 million people. It's the center of fashion, finance, and design, hosting ice events (figure skating, short track, ice hockey) for these Olympics.
Cortina d'Ampezzo is a small ski resort village of 6,000 people nestled in the Dolomite Alps. It hosted the 1956 Winter Olympics and is famous as a retreat for European elites. It will host snow events including skiing and bobsled.
The two cities are approximately 160km apart, requiring over 2 hours of travel. This dispersed hosting is one cause of cost increases and logistical complexity.
Chapter 1: The Collapse of "Low-Cost Olympics"
Understanding Olympic Cost Structure
Olympic costs are broadly divided into two categories:
-
Operational Budget (OCOG Budget): Costs directly managed by the organizing committee. Covered by revenues from broadcasting rights, sponsorships, and ticket sales. Typically breaks even.
-
Non-operational Budget: Infrastructure investments including venues, roads, railways, and accommodations. Funded by government and private sector. This is where cost explosions occur.
The IOC and host nations often report only the "operational budget" as official costs, classifying infrastructure investments as "city development unrelated to the Olympics" to minimize reported expenses.
Cost Trajectory: 3x Increase
| Timeline | Official Budget | Actual Estimate | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Bid | €1.7B | – | "Existing facilities" emphasized |
| 2024 Mid-point | €2.8B | €3.5B | Infrastructure additions |
| 2026 Present | €3.5B | €5B+ | Civil society estimates |
Of the €3.5 billion spent by Simico, the state infrastructure company established by the Italian government, only a portion went to actual venues. The rest was classified as "legacy projects" including road expansion, railway improvements, and Milan-Cortina transport links.
Cortina Bobsled Track: Birth of a White Elephant
Bobsled/luge/skeleton tracks are the most expensive and maintenance-intensive facilities in Winter Olympics. Creating and maintaining a 1.5km artificial ice track requires massive cooling systems and energy. Only 16 such tracks exist worldwide, most recording annual losses of several million euros.
The IOC initially recommended using existing tracks in St. Moritz, Switzerland or Igls, Austria (Innsbruck). These tracks already host World Cup events and are just 2-3 hours by car from Cortina.
However, Italy insisted on building a new track under the rationale of hosting "all events domestically." Behind this decision lay lobbying by Cortina-area politicians and construction industry interests.
Cost Escalation:
- Initial estimate (2019): €50 million
- Post-tender (2024): €80 million
- Current (2026): €118 million (136% increase)
Precedent — 2006 Turin Sliding Track:
Italy already had a bobsled track near Cesana, built for €84 million for the Turin Olympics:
- Failed to achieve commercial viability post-Olympics
- Annual maintenance costs exceeded €2 million
- Closed in 2011, currently awaiting demolition
- Cited as a textbook example of a "white elephant"
There's no evidence the Cortina track will avoid the same fate. Italy has fewer than 100 bobsled/luge athletes, and plans for hosting international competitions remain unclear.
Chapter 2: 1.6 Million m³ of Artificial Snow — Climate Change and Winter Olympics Crisis
Why Do Winter Olympics Need Snow?
Ski events (alpine, cross-country, freestyle, etc.) require snow of consistent quality. Natural snow varies with temperature, humidity, and wind, so modern Olympics use artificial snow to ensure uniform course conditions.
Artificial snow is produced by snow cannons. Water is sprayed at high pressure and freezes in sub-zero air to form snow crystals. The problems:
- Massive water consumption: 1m³ of artificial snow requires 250-400 liters of water
- Power consumption: Running snow cannons demands enormous electricity
- Temperature requirements: Minimum -2 to -3°C needed for operation
Milano-Cortina's Artificial Snow Status
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total artificial snow | 1.6 million m³ |
| Water consumption | 400-600 million liters |
| Power consumption | 3.2-8 million kWh |
| Natural snow ratio | Under 10% |
1.6 million m³ of water could supply approximately 160,000 households for a month. This water is drawn from nearby lakes and reservoirs, raising concerns about depleting Alpine water resources.
Historical Trend: Winter Olympics Getting Warmer
| Games | Location | Avg Temp | Artificial Snow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1924 | Chamonix, France | -4°C | 0% |
| 1994 | Lillehammer, Norway | -11°C | 0% |
| 2010 | Vancouver, Canada | +5°C | 70% |
| 2014 | Sochi, Russia | +6°C | 80% |
| 2022 | Beijing, China | -4°C | 100% |
| 2026 | Milano-Cortina | +2-5°C expected | 90%+ |
The 2022 Beijing Olympics was the first in history to use 100% artificial snow. The Yanqing ski venue was in an area that rarely receives natural snowfall.
Research Findings: The Future of Winter Olympics
Analysis by Washington Post and University of Waterloo (Canada) research team (2022):
- If current warming trends continue (+1.5°C above pre-industrial levels), by mid-century more than half of past Winter Olympics host cities will be unable to reliably host events
- Under a +2°C scenario, Lillehammer, Vancouver, and Sochi also enter the risk zone
- Traditional hosts like Chamonix and Innsbruck will struggle to reliably host by the 2050s
This raises questions about the very existence of Winter Olympics. The IOC has confirmed hosts through 2030 (French Alps) and 2034 (Salt Lake City), but beyond that remains uncertain.
Chapter 3: Corruption Scandals and Constitutional Court — Shadows of Italian Politics
Italy's History of Major Event Corruption
Italy has a repeated history of corruption scandals at major international events:
- 2006 Turin Winter Olympics: Bid-rigging in venue construction exposed, multiple construction company executives indicted
- 2006 FIFA World Cup victory aftermath: Calciopoli scandal — systematic referee bribery by Juventus and other clubs exposed, relegation penalties imposed
- 2015 Milan Expo: Multiple organizing committee officials arrested on corruption charges, over €100 million in fraudulent contracts discovered
This time is no exception.
The "Olympic Rescue Decree" Controversy
In November 2025, the Meloni government passed the "Decreto Salva-Olimpiadi" (Olympic Rescue Decree). Key provisions:
- Reclassified Milano-Cortina Foundation as "private entity": Exempt from transparency and accounting standards applied to public institutions
- Allowed bid records to remain confidential: Made prosecution investigation of contracting processes difficult
- Fast-track provisions: Bypassed parliamentary oversight of cost overruns
The Milan prosecutor's office requested a constitutional review, arguing the decree violates constitutional equality principles and anti-corruption laws. The ruling is expected after the Olympics conclude.
Operation Reset: The Shadow of the Mafia
The 2024 "Operazione Reset" investigation revealed shocking facts:
- Multiple Cortina-area construction companies linked to 'Ndrangheta (Calabrian mafia)
- Organized crime funds flowing into Olympic-related road construction, accommodation facilities, and nightlife businesses
- Approximately 10 local officials and contractors arrested
According to Italy's Anti-Mafia Directorate (DIA), construction is Italian organized crime's preferred money laundering sector. Multi-billion euro Olympic construction projects are prime targets.
Civil society group "Open Olympics 2026" (led by anti-mafia association Libera) continues to expose cost overruns, absent environmental impact assessments, and bidding process opacity.
Chapter 4: Russian Athlete Participation and Geopolitical Tensions
Background: Russia-Ukraine War and Sports Sanctions
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The international sports community imposed unprecedented sanctions:
- FIFA/UEFA: Banned Russian national team and clubs from all competitions
- IOC: Recommended banning Russian and Belarusian athletes from Olympics
- Individual federations: Most sports including tennis and athletics banned Russian athletes
At the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics, the IOC introduced the "Individual Neutral Athlete (AIN)" system. Russian and Belarusian athletes who passed strict screening could participate as individuals without national flag or anthem.
What Are "Neutral Athletes"?
IOC conditions for neutral athlete participation:
- No war support activities: SNS posts, public statements screened
- No military/security agency affiliation: Active military, FSB-linked individuals excluded
- No Russian flag or anthem: Compete in white uniforms, stateless status
- No opening ceremony march: Excluded from national delegations
- Medals not counted: Not reflected in Russia's national medal standings
Milano-Cortina: 13 Russian Neutral Athletes Participating
13 Russian neutral athletes have been approved for these Games. By sport:
- Figure skating: 4
- Cross-country skiing: 3
- Biathlon: 2
- Freestyle skiing: 2
- Skeleton: 2
Controversy: Is "Neutral" Really Neutral?
According to BBC Sport (February 4), allegations emerged that some approved neutral athletes were involved in past war support activities:
- Saveliy Korostelev (figure skating): Alleged signature on "Support for Special Military Operation" petition in 2022
- Ksenia Korzova (figure skating): Evidence of deleted pro-government Instagram posts
The IOC explained they "met qualifications based on criteria at the time of screening," but Ukraine and Western media criticize the screening's inadequacy.
Ukraine's Response
Ukrainian skeleton athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych gained worldwide attention at the 2022 Beijing Olympics by holding a "No War In Ukraine" sign. His recent statement:
"There is war fatigue. People are starting to forget that Russia is a terrorist state. We see Russians in sports arenas more often. But Ukrainians are being bombed every day."
He revealed he received an official warning from the IOC not to engage in political protests during the Games. Olympic Charter Rule 50 prohibits political demonstrations at venues, with violations potentially resulting in disqualification.
New IOC President's "Russia Return" Signal
Kirsty Coventry (former Zimbabwean swimmer), elected new IOC President in March 2025, said at a February 3 press conference:
"Sport should be a neutral ground. It should be separated from politics and government actions. Athletes are not responsible for their government's decisions."
This is interpreted as groundwork for Russia's full return at the 2028 LA Olympics. Milano-Cortina serves as the testing ground.
Chapter 5: Scenario Analysis
Scenario A: Successful Games (45%)
Evidence:
- Historical frequency: Beijing 2008 (Tibet protests), Sochi 2014 (pre-Crimea annexation), Beijing 2022 (Uyghur controversy) all concluded as "successes." 4 of the last 5 Winter Olympics (80%) finished smoothly despite controversies
- IOC media control: Pattern established of minimizing critical coverage through broadcast partnerships (NBC, Eurosport, etc.)
- Italian soft power: Food, fashion, culture, and Dolomite scenery offset political noise
Triggers:
- Ukrainian athletes refrain from protests
- Russian neutral athletes compete without incident
- No climate emergencies (temperatures stay below freezing)
Timeframe: Entire Games period (February 6-22)
Scenario B: Ukrainian Boycott/Protest (25%)
Evidence:
- Heraskevych precedent: Experience of gaining worldwide attention from 2022 Beijing protest
- Latvia-Sweden solidarity: History of refusing matches against Russian athletes at European Curling Cup
- IOC warnings backfire: Suppression may strengthen protest motivation. 1968 Mexico City "Black Power salute" became historic despite IOC sanctions
Triggers:
- Major Russian airstrikes on Ukraine during Games
- Pro-war suspect Russian athlete wins medal
- Western media focus creates international opinion momentum
Timeframe: Mid-Games (February 10-15)
Scenario C: Corruption Scandal Explosion (20%)
Evidence:
- Ongoing investigations: Constitutional Court proceedings, Operation Reset follow-up investigations
- Italian political pattern: Post-major event scandal explosions repeat. Calciopoli immediately after 2006 World Cup, organizing committee arrests after 2015 Expo
Triggers:
- Emergency arrest/indictment of high-ranking official during Games
- Whistleblower emerges regarding cost overruns
- Opposition political offensive intensifies
Timeframe: 3-6 months after Games conclude
Scenario D: Climate Emergency (10%)
Evidence:
- Recent trends: 2023-24 Alpine winters historically warm. Cortina recorded +10°C in January 2024
- 90%+ artificial snow dependence: No alternatives if snow-making systems fail
- Why low probability: Organizing committee has built extensive backup systems (mobile snow cannons, snow storage facilities)
Triggers:
- Temperatures exceed +10°C for 4+ consecutive days
- Large-scale snow-making equipment failure
- Sudden Föhn (dry Alpine wind) occurrence
Timeframe: Early Games (February 6-10)
Conclusion: Testing Ground for the Olympic Model
Milano-Cortina 2026 must answer three fundamental questions:
1. Finance: Is a "Low-Cost Olympics" Possible?
The 2019 promise of €1.7 billion has ballooned to over €5 billion. The IOC's recommendation to "utilize existing facilities" was ignored, and political interests overwhelmed economic rationality. The Cortina bobsled track is likely to repeat Turin's failure. Answer: So far, no.
2. Environment: Are Winter Olympics Sustainable in the Climate Change Era?
1.6 million m³ of artificial snow, nearly 100% artificial snow dependence, hundreds of millions of liters of water consumption. The premise of Winter Olympics—"winter"—is disappearing. By the 2050s, half of past host cities won't be able to hold Games. Answer: Serious question mark.
3. Geopolitics: Can Sport Be Separated from Politics?
The IOC claims "sports neutrality," but Russian athlete participation is itself a political choice. Warning Ukrainian athletes "not to protest" is also a political act. New President Coventry's statements signal Russia's full return in 2028. Answer: Not as simple as the IOC claims.
Tomorrow's opening ceremony will feature Mariah Carey and Andrea Bocelli singing of "harmony." Spectacular fireworks and drone shows will paint the Dolomite night sky.
But the reality of budget overruns, corruption investigations, climate crisis, and geopolitical tensions remains behind the spectacular stage. Milano-Cortina 2026 will become a mirror reflecting the future of the Olympics.
Sources: The Guardian, BBC Sport, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP News, Washington Post, IOC official statements, Italy's Anti-Mafia Directorate (DIA) reports, "Open Olympics 2026" civil society reports
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